CI/CI-Severe in West Texas Convection

I was able to watch the CI and CI-Severe products in some convection that developed over Glasscock county just west of the San Angelo CWA.

This image was taken at 2147Z on Wednesday, with CI in the upper left, CI-Severe upper right, Goes-16 Visible lower right, and SJT 0.5 degrees reflectivity lower left. While satellite has started to show buildups in the cumulus field in the county, no precipitation or lightning has developed. CI is in the 30-50% range over southeastern parts of the county, while CI-Severe was higher for the central area.

At 2157Z, precipitation developed over the northwestern part of the county, with low CI probability over the eastern part. The CI-Severe jumped up to 80%+ over the northeastern part of the county.

By 2212Z, 4 areas of precipitation had developed. Some lightning was occurring withe the easternmost and northwesternmost cells. Since convection was occurring, the CI and CI-Severe dropped almost completely.

The CI product was useful for anticipating where the showers and thunderstorms would develop, but did not provide a clue as to their intensity. All of the cells were producing lightning by around 2245Z.

Gary Cannalte