CI regular vs severe

I have noticed on severe occasions where the CI (for regular convective initiation) is much lower than the probability depicted by the Severe CI product.  Intuitively, one would think the probability for convective initiation should ALWAYS be higher than the probability for convective initiation to lead to severe weather.

Fig 1. "Regular" CI product at 2037 UTC. Note the green 50% CI probability toward central AR.

Fig 2. Severe CI product at 2037 UTC. There is a 90% probability for severe convection in the same location as the above image.

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