20Z Update - ABQ

At 20Z, a series of multicell clusters continued to track NE along the I-20 corridor. The strongest cell was located just west of the ABQ metro with ProbSevere indicating a likely severe thunderstorm with ProbHail values ~60%, ProbWind values ~80%, & MRMS MESH just over 1".

GLM flash extent density indicates a weakening trend in the strongest cell west of ABQ. Consequently ProbSevere values drop as well to 50% hail, 67% wind & 0.88" MESH at the end of the loop. Meanwhile an increasing trend in GLM flash density can be seen in the cell over Socorro to the south. ProbSevere values are quite low around 10%, but will be interesting to watch this cell & see if the increase in lightning activity is an initial precursor to a developing severe thunderstorm.

UPDATE (2030Z): Well... despite no real increase in GLM Flash Density the cluster now over the ABQ metro has re-intensified  to a likely severe thunderstorm. ProbHail 85%, ProbWind 82%, 66 dBZ (!!) up to -20C, & MESH estimates of 1.61". In this case increases/decreases in lightning activity did not neccessairly correlate to an increase/decrease in storm strength.

Peter Sunday