[20:00 UTC] Strong to severe convection is well underway across southern and central portions of the ABQ WFO in an environment characterized by ample low level instability on the order of 1500-2000 j/kg of SBCAPE. Although surface to 6 km bulk shear is rather marginal (around 30kts), substantial DCAPE in excess of 1000 j/kg is nudging northward into the CWA per latest SPC mesoanalysis. This would suggest that these storms will be a bit "pulse-y" in nature, with robust updrafts developing but not able to be sustained for extended periods of time with the lack of shear inhibiting storm organization to a degree. This being said, fairly steep mid-level lapse rates on the order of 7.5-8 C/km may support large hail (and potential for very large hail in isolated stronger updrafts).
As we progress through the remainder of the daytime heating hours, the convection (and in particular the potential for strong/severe convection), will shift east through the heart of the ABQ CWA, including through the greater Albuquerque area. With steep mid-level lapse rates, large hail and isolated damaging winds will be the main threats with the strongest activity. With relatively dry air aloft (and near the surface), some of the stronger wind aloft may be translated down to the surface, keeping at least a low end damaging wind threat in the mix through the next handful of hours.
Rosie Red
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