NUCAPS Sounding in Lubbock

A (green) NUCAPS sounding was analyzed ahead of the dry line in the east-central portion of the CWA (Fig 1).

FIgure 1: NUCAPS sounding availability. Hand represents NUCAPS point discussed in this blog post.

The NUCAPS sounding selected indicates CAPE well above what was analyzed from other data sources. SBCAPE is over 4000 j/kg, MLCAPE around 5400, and MUCAPE around 6900.  All three CAPES are around or below 3000 j/kg based on SPC mesoanalysis and hi res model data. Some reasons for the too high of CAPE in the NUCAPS profile, based on comparison with SPC mesoanlysis and other nWP data: 1) the well-mixed layer was unrealistic, moistening too fast vertically and lowering the LCL, 2) the profile was too cold in areas, including around 700 mb. Adjusting for these reasons made for more realistic NUCAPS values. Figure 2 shows the unmodified "modified sounding", while figure 3 shows the modified "modified sounding". The modified "modified sounding" shows thermodynamic fields closer in line with what was likely reality, though probably still slightly high.

Figure 2: Modified NUCAPS (not modified by user)

Figure 3: Modified NUCAPS (Further modified by user)

- Bucky