On Wisconsin, on Wisconsin

We left OAX for the greener pastures of Green Bay. Convection was ongoing along a steep SW-NE thermal boundary at the surface. There was a strong surge of warm air in a tongue approaching GRB. Watched as velocities came up along a cell just west of GRB and issued a statement for strong winds.

Eight minutes later a second are of winds >30 kts appeared just south of the original cell, so a second statement was issued for this area.

At 2215Z the inbounds increased to 30-40 kts and the trend was increasing. Warnings were issued for second developing bow at 2221. I think this is a time when ProbSevere was misleading us, because ProbWind went down even as velocities were going up. I think this is because the size of the PHI object grew, so perhaps there was some averaging going on inside the shape. I issued warning due to low level velocity only.

At 2233, in an area with increasing lightning trends, MESH started increasing on the northern bookend. Issued SVR for 60 mph wind and 1" hail for area around Shawara co.

Six minutes later the storm really intensified. Still inside the warning box, the ProvHail increased to 95% and ProbWind increased to 94. MESH increased to 1.58", but left the warning as is in anticipation of melting.

Half an hour later, still satisfied wind threat (mainly) continues with the line behaving well and remaining inside SVR box.

Noted that velocities on the southern part of the line experienced a strong increase, in excess of 50 kts inbound in segment of the line heading toward Green Bay itself.

Warning expired, so I need to reissue for storm heading into the Green Bay metro. Hail threat very low, so increased wind threat to 70 mph due to velocities in excess of 60 kts as storm approached RDA.

-tvguy