Montoring for Convective Initation - Using NUCAPS and GOES 16

By 19z shifted attention to possibility of new convective development along what appears to be outflow boundary across southwest corner of FSD CWA. Area of concern highlighted below:

First concern is how strong capping inversion is in this area. RAP analysis fields indicate H7 temps around 14-15C in area of interest. This is well supported by NUCAPS soundings around 18z which showed a large area of H7 temps in the 13-14C range.

Despite the warm temps aloft, persistent convergence and sustained cumulus provides some potential for storm initiation in this area in the next hour or so. Watching the 1 minute imagery of the Day cloud phase RBG, you can see glaciation begin in the towering CU field (increasing color). The following three images show an increase in ice starting around 1918 UTC through 1945 UTC. First 50 dbz echo appeared at 1952 UTC half degree KFSD scan.