Grand Forks 1930 UTC Forecast Discussion

Thunderstorm development and severity will be primary forecast concern, mainly across southeast portions of the Grand Forks CWA.  1712 to 1902 UTC GOES-16 visible satellite loops indicate two areas of concern for potential convective development. The first along a trough axis extending southeast from KBWP and along weak warm front in localized area of H85 WAA.

SPC objective analysis indicated around 2000 j/kg of MLCAPE with little CINH along southward extending trough...but increasing to the north and east near the warm front.  RAP forecast soundings indicate similar values will continue through 23 UTC. Effective shear values around 35 kts were indicated in this area. Shear and instability will remain favorable for some supercells with low level shear increasing near warm front where low level shear increasing near warm front, indicating at least a small tornado risk

 By 19427UTC, convective invitation underway with cloud top temps reaching around -52 C with cells just to the west of sfc trough.

-JRM