Main concern will be severity of convection across bulk of cwa through the afternoon. Shear profiles overall weak as large ridge dominates the area with light easterly flow aloft. While SPC and RAP analysis indicate 1500-2500 J/KG CAPE present, GOES 16 Derived CAPE values much lower, generally a third or less what other analysis provide (See below images)
GOES 16 Total precipitable water was useful in identifying plume of moisture advecting into the southern CWA.
A loop of water vapor imagery indicated a short wave trough drifting east into the area, it showed up most apparently in the simple water vapor RGB :
RAP 1.5 PVU pressure fields supported a PV anomaly/trough in this area as well
JRM
No comments:
Post a Comment