Monday, June 19, 2017

ProbWind Under Forecasting Probabilities

Here is an example where it appears ProbWind under forecasts the probability of severe wind:
In the example above, there is widespread >=50 knot velocities associated with a line of thunderstorms; however, ProbWind only had a 1% chance of severe winds. This was likely because of relatively low azimuthal shear due to weak azimuthal gradient.

It would be beneficial to include some variation of maximum radial wind (such as  to ProbWind to account for the cases where the azimuthal shear is relatively weak.

-Lost Met 

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