Tuesday, June 20, 2017

ProbSevere Compared to Classic Radar Integration Techniques


It might be beneficial if ProbSevere included some form of storm-top divergence in its algorithm.

For example, on this 1946 UTC scan, there was ~150 knots of storm-top divergence at ~40,000 ft AGL:

This indicates the presence of an intense updraft, which suggests the storm should continue to intensify and is probably about to produce severe weather.

ProbSevere did show intensification with a gradual increase in percentages (47% to 94%) between 1946 and 1956 UTC:
Nevertheless, incorporating storm-top divergence may help increase the percentages faster.

-Lost Met

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