KDDC: SVR Use of Prob Severe In Warning Decision

Issued a severe thunderstorm warning as 50 dBZ was reaching 35,000 feet and there was a significant storm top divergence signature aloft. A three body scatter spike was also seen. Prob Severe values for hail increased to over 90% and then have been consistently around 98% since warning issuance.

See blog post called Prob Severe compared to Classic Radar Interrogation Techniques

An LSR for hail of hen egg size (2.00 inches) came in 2 minutes after the warning was issued.

At 3:21 pm, a report of ping pong ball sized hail (1.50 inches) was reported.

I was having an issue with the text workstation, which delayed the issuance by a few minutes.


Issued a new severe thunderstorm warning on the same storm as Prob Severe has consistently been running over 90% for hail and has even shown an increase in Prob Wind which is now 80%. 60 dBZ was also reaching 35,000 feet which is well above the -20C (~22,000ft).

Several reports have also come in since the time of new issuance of warning including hail half-dollar to the size of golf balls, which the MESH was indicating as well.

The storm briefly weakened before similiar signals were indicated in all tilts with 60 dBZ reaching ober 30,000 feet and a consistently high Prob Severe value at 98%.

-Ironman