Wednesday, June 21, 2017

GID: Axis of instability analysis from SPC Analysis vs GOES-16 derived and LAP.

Convection has been struggling with development this afternoon but has shown signs of improvement as the cells track eastward toward the CAPE gradient. SPC's meso-analysis depicted that these cells were approaching a tighter gradient in instability which would make sense given the increase in activity.

 ML CAPE from SPC Mesoanalysis


GOES 16 derived CAPE had a gap in data in the critical area where the gradient is expected to exist. (Having an option to fill in data was valuable here). As such, added in the LAP to see if this gradient jived with the mesoanalysis. They in fact did, so as a result confidence is increased that convection should intensify through the evening as these cell move east. Forecaster: Tahoe



GOES 16 derived CAPE and LAP CAPE

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