Tuesday, June 20, 2017

EWP Week 1 Day 2 Summary

Our two groups of forecasters remained in the Dodge City and Chicago CWA's for the duration of Tuesday.

- Bill Line, NWS


  • GOES-16 ABI Imagery and products
    • Imagery
      • Sandwich product is a top 5 image to look at in operations
      • Compared to RGB’s, sandwich was better. Looked at daytime convection, couldn't see much of the gradient in the cloud top temperatures. In sandwich, could see it well while preserving the gradient.
      • Cheat sheets for various imagery bands and combinations will be very helpful
    • Derived products (CAPE, LI, winds, dsi, tpw)
      • Instability very low compared to SPC mesoanalysis and most model data
      • In kansas, GOES cape was half as much as spc mesoanlysis and GFS
      • Convection developed within the highest values of instability and TPW
    • Channel differences

    • RGB composites
      • I am having trouble wrapping my head around the Airmass RGB
  • GLM
    • In Illinois, I used glm to try to get lead time to cg, but didn’t have lead time
    • In kansas, GLM data provided lead time to first NLDN cg by around 20 min
    • My favorite display was the 5-min product updating every minute.
    • Most forecasters looked at the gridded events and flash combo.
    • I like looking at the flash because it is what I’m familiar with
    • For tv, would mostly show flashes, but maybe last frame would show the extent (gridded event) to get across that lightning can extend far from the storm core, and could potentially hit the surface far away from thunderstorm
  • ProbSevere
    • In illinois, the environment was marginal. Probsevere values stayed low confirming the low end threat. One report was from strong outflow with very low dbz, so probsevere had no probs on the outflow and very low probs with associated storm. This happens a lot out west, so would be nice to be able to track situations like this (outflow winds).
    • Not much velocity data in the algorithm. Storm with high std, I saw this before probsevere increased. Would be nice to somehow incorporate more vel data.
    • When I had a lot of storms and warnings going, probsevere was very useful. Instead of viewing all tilts with all storms, prob severe was great for SA, directing me to storms that needed attention. For all storms that were producing hail, probhail was over 95%. Gave me confidence that the same types of structures were being seen with new storms as with old storms.
  • NUCAPS
    • Afternoon pass confirmed low instability in our area. Storms did not go severe
    • Using plan view display, looked at dew point depressions just above the surface, helped to confirm dry atmosphere.
    • Loaded op and exp modified ahead of line. Experimental made well a mixed layer, added instability to around 500 j/kg. This even seemed a little high, considering convection was very weak.
    • Modified was much better. Non modified had a lot of CIN, unbreakable, but we had explosive development., modified was much better. Went from 300 to 2400. Southern plains will get nice well mixed layer, but east coast you won't really get this.
    • Some flag to show where NUCAPS is significantly different from a model would be helpful. Perhaps above a certain layer
    • Cross section was useful to see how deep dry layer was
    • Would be beneficial to have plan view CAPE of modified soundings

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