Chicago: Meso-Analysis

Meso Analysis: Chicago (LOT):

Main points up front:

• GOES 16 derived stability indicies help diagnosis the anemic convective development in LOT's CWA. 
• GOES 16 derived stability helped reveal areas where convection is most likley to become active later (western CWA).
• Metop-A Nucaps passes added confidence to the analysis seen in GOES-16.

Initial line of convection and outflow boundary struggling to sustain deep convection across the northern CWA and little new convection firing along the outflow boundary as seen by the radar above. 

The GOES-16 Derived Products:

GOES-16 derived stability fields show helpful information of weak CAPE values of only a few hundred (J/kg) and positive LI's across much of the LOT CWA.

 

An analysis about 45 minutes layer and using a compressed color scale to increase contrast shows the most favorable activity would be along the western CWA which showed higher CAPE (300-400 j/kg), negative LI's, and few tenth's higher on PWs. This matches well with surface observations which show higher surface temps and dewpoints in the mid-50s to lower 60s in Davenports area. 

Metop-A NUCAPS & GOES-16 Airmas RGB:

Overlaid Airmas RGB and Metop-A pass to compare. No strong signal evident of moisture or large dry layers intruding into the areas. Did sample and modify Metop-A dervide soundings in the Davenport sounding to the west and more stable environment to the east. Overall, modified soundings show a similar pattern of slightly more unstable to the west where convection is initially firing. 

Forecaster: Tahoe