Stokes County NC Severe Thunderstorm Warning - Prob Severe Values Jump, But Were Delayed.

I issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Stokes County NC at 2126 UTC, due to a combination of high reflectivity aloft via all tilts, and a jump in the Prob Severe model from 24% at 2119 UTC to 72% at 2122 UTC. The Prob Severe remained around 75% for a few scans afterwards. The cirrus canopy prevented any data on growth rates with the Prob Severe model, which perhaps delayed the jump in values. Update: Half dollar size hail in Stokes County at 2125 UTC, so no lead time. Again, Prob Severe may have shown the jump in Prob Severe sooner without the cirrus canopy overhead. JJW