Perhaps as storms mature, a new inner contour based on 50 dBZ would provide storm specific information for the northernmost cell?
Tornadotod
Monday, May 2, 2016
Prob severe...a suggestion
While tracking the 35 dBZ echo is good with developing convection, the example image below shows where this methodology fails. Note the new discrete storm that has developed to the north of the mature supercell (dropping hen egg size hail). The prob severe model contouring provides no usefull information for the storm to the north as it is unduly influenced by the storm to the south.
Perhaps as storms mature, a new inner contour based on 50 dBZ would provide storm specific information for the northernmost cell?
Tornadotod
Perhaps as storms mature, a new inner contour based on 50 dBZ would provide storm specific information for the northernmost cell?
Tornadotod
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Thanks for the post and feedback, Tornadotod. This has been a consistent suggestion from forecasters the last few years. The tracking algorithm actually begins at 55 dBZ and looks for local maxima at every 1 dBZ down to 40 dBZ. The catch is that it grows objects in increments of 5 dBZ. We could reduce that increment value, which would help separate these two storms, but that adds complexity and longer latency. It is difficult to balance the proper identification with extra run-time/latency, but we will definitely work on it more over the next year.
ReplyDeleteThanks again.