May 12, 2016: GOES-R Final Day in Nashville's Forecast Area

The final day features a shift down stream from Norman, OK to Nashville's and Huntsville's forecast areas.  Our team is focusing on OHX's forecast area.  It is a messier set-up compared to the previous events.   Multi-celluar convection continues to fire out ahead of the main cold front.  MLCAPE's are generally in the 1000-1500 J/kg range ahead of the line of convection ahead of the front as of 1700 UTC.

The Effective Bulk Shear is generally less than 30 kts at 1700 UTC over most of the forecast area. Though closer to the squall line they are in the 35-45 kt range.

The OHX sounding is fairly unstable if parcels are lifted from 850 hPa.  The MUCAPE value off the 12Z sounding is close to 1200 J/kg (see below).  The PWAT is close to the RAP analysis at 1.28".  The mid-level lapse rates are relatively week in the 6C/km.  This may be a day of multi-cells capable of heavy rain until the convective line approaches.

PWAT values are higher than the previous day in the 1.2-1.5" range according to the RAP analysis below.

The LAP data below also shows PWATs in 1.1-1.4" range in the lower right panel.  The CAPE analysis looks underdone compared to the RAP data now that the clouds have filled in.

Overall, some marginally large hail and damaging winds are possible.  However, these storms look capable of heavy rain ahead of the front.  If the line ahead of the cold front intensifies then wind damage would be the main threat.

-Yodamaster777