The above image shows a cumulus field forming across the east-southeast portion of San Angelo's forecast area spilling into the western portion of KFWD's. Convective initiation is expected in the west-northwest corridor of KFWD's area associated with the dry line (not shown). Surface dewpoints to the east of the dry line are in the 60's to lower 70s. The SPC mesoanalysis indicates SBCAPEs in the 2000-5000 J/kg range over most of the KFWD forecast area. This instability axis is underestimated by the LAP data per the image below in the upper left panel by half compared to RAP. LAP CAPE values peak in the 2000-2500 J/kg range. The thinking is that convective initiation will occur once again along the west/northwest portion of the instability axis. Despite the modest shear of 20 kts in the 0-6 km layer, mammoth amounts of instability should allow supercells to fire with large hail the primary threat, though one can not rule out isolated tornadoes and damaging winds. The cells should move to the east to northeast. Lifted indices are in the -8 to -10C range according to the GOES-R LAP data.
Hopefully, an 1800 UTC sounding will be done by KFWD. The 1200 UTC raob definitely shows an elevated mixed layer. Mid-level lapse rates are in the 7-8C/km range. Convective temps are in the lower 90's.
Observations upstream of Dallas-Fort Worth are in the lower 90s. Surface dewpoints range from the upper 50's over the northwest portion of the CWA to lower 70s over the east-southeast. PWAT's range from an inch over DFW to about 0.6" to the northwest. It will be interesting how far east to southeast the dry line progresses today. Bottom-line: isolated to possibly scattered supercells with large hail (possible several reports 2" or greater hail stones possible), and isolated tornadoes will the primary threats. We could have a few hail monsters too.
-Yodamaster777
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