My co-worker and I continue to monitor a few thunderstorms across our assigned CWA this afternoon. The Prob. Severe Model and Lightning Jump Detection Algorithm tools continue to be very helpful today with the decision to issue warnings.
 |
| Doppler radar image at 1922z with Prob. Severe & LJDA overlayed |
The early lightning jump rose to a 4.0 sigma value, which to me hinted that this storm was getting stronger by the minute.
Plus, we were tracking the Prob. Severe figure and at first it was 48%, then 61%, followed by 83%, and finally 92% before I decided to issue a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for the very southern fringe of the CWA.
 |
| Prob. Severe output indicating 92% with also a hail spike shown on a previous frame of the radar data. I decided to issue a warning. |
The warning did end up verifying in Burke County 10 miles northwest of the city of Girard with golf ball sized hail reported. That was reported at 2004z.
-BW
No comments:
Post a Comment