Tuesday, May 3, 2016

LJDA & Prob. Severe Model with CAE CWA T-Storms

My co-worker and I continue to monitor a few thunderstorms across our assigned CWA this afternoon. The Prob. Severe Model and Lightning Jump Detection Algorithm tools continue to be very helpful today with the decision to issue warnings.

Doppler radar image at 1922z with Prob. Severe & LJDA overlayed
The early lightning jump rose to a 4.0 sigma value, which to me hinted that this storm was getting stronger by the minute.

Plus, we were tracking the Prob. Severe figure and at first it was 48%, then 61%, followed by 83%, and finally 92% before I decided to issue a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for the very southern fringe of the CWA.

Prob. Severe output indicating 92% with also a hail spike shown on a previous frame of the radar data. I decided to issue a warning.
The warning did end up verifying in Burke County 10 miles northwest of the city of Girard with golf ball sized hail reported. That was reported at 2004z.

-BW

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