GOES Prob Severe Increased Confidence in Issuing Severe Thunderstorm Warning

We issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for 3 counties in NW OK around 20Z.
Using a traditional forecasting methodology of looking for 60dBZ up to the -20C level, we determined that severe hail was becoming a possibility.

The GOES Prob Severe product increased our confidence in making this decision. Around the same 20Z time period, the Prob Severe jumped from around 40% to 75% over a short period of time. We also saw a lighning jump of about 2 sigma during this time as well. These products didn't neccessarily increase our lead time, but increased confidence.

WUUS54 KOUN 092006
SVROUN
OKC003-093-151-092045-
/O.NEW.KOUN.SV.W.0142.160509T2006Z-160509T2045Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
306 PM CDT MON MAY 9 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN  HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN WOODS COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...
  CENTRAL ALFALFA COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...
  CENTRAL MAJOR COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 345 PM CDT

* AT 305 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
  CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL UP TO PING PONG BALL SIZE AND
  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES
  WEST OF ORIENTA...OR 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF FAIRVIEW...AND MOVING
  NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CHEROKEE...CARMEN...CLEO SPRINGS...JET...ALINE...LAMBERT...GREAT SALT
  PLAINS LAKE AND ORIENTA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY
LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY
RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER
COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 3670 9813 3628 9855 3638 9874 3683 9834
      3697 9812
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 214DEG 58KT 3639 9860

$$


JFP/TAW


- JP/Yodamaster777