DFW mesoscale outlook 5/10/16

Slight risk in place over the DFW CWA this afternoon that will be a largely instability driven event as forecast soundings and RAP data indicate very high values of cape (approaching 5000 J/kg) strong lapse rates throughout the column and a dry line in place just to the west of the CWA that should act as the focus for convection. With very fat CAPE is present through the hail growth zone it is an easy call that hail will be the main threat of the day. However, LAP data has presented some questions as currently the LAP data in some places is as much as 2000 J/KG lower than the SPC RAP analysis.

Regardless there should be enough CAPE to get storms going today but they may take a little longer than anticipated to get going. With a lower freezing level today near 11000 feet that should help counteract some of the higher temperatures at the service and help get severe hail at the surface.  As far as wind damage is concerned as a secondary threat it is not out of the question as DCAPE values are around 1700 J/kg and layer PW is depicting dryer air aloft in the mid and upper levels and this is also showing up in the RAP forecast soundings.

While the tornado threat looks minimal for today there is a small area of 20 kt 0-1 km shear over the central portion of the CWA. Still this threat should be minimal.

Looking at the 1 minute rapid scan data...a cu field is starting to develop over the San Angelo CWA just ahead of the dryline. As temperatures and dewpoints mix out over the cwa...this field should continue develop north and east into our western counties. Would expect this to be the main area of focus initially and then storms propagating northeastward. Looking at how the dryline evolves through the day...it will push slowly eastward but then jump back to the west after sunset as dewpoints rise again. This could keep storms focused on the western half of the cwa today with any eastward propagation driven mostly by cold pools and outflow boundaries on the storm scale. As far as effective shear is concerned it gets better in the southern portions of the cwa so the southwest portion of the cwa could be the most favorable for strong storm development today. Shear is really lacking to the north and convection will be strictly instability driven. Temperatures are already climbing into the lower 90s so convective temperature should be breached soon if it hasn't already.

-Jason Bourne