Started off the day doing a meso analysis of our WFO with my partner for the day. A prominent dryline is advancing East into a region with high CAPE, lapse rates that have been rapidly steepening, helicity that suggests supercell potential, and plenty of available moisture. Plenty of signs indicate a potential severe weather outbreak this afternoon. Isolated tornadoes are possible, but it appears that wind damage and large hail will be the main threats. Right now it's still early. Decided to give some of the new products a try:
As of this writing the CI and Severe CI probabilities are still quite marginal.
When trying to determine most likely location for storm development, the LAP cape Image shows plenty of high values in our WFO
-Stormfront
There is a race against time with the dynamics of the dryline and the thermodynamics available for storm formation. The Western portion of our forecast area has already seen the dryline come through.
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