Our friend the dryline is located across the western part of our CWA. Cape is very low across most of the region, with the exception of the Extreme SE portion, where values approach 2000 j/kg. Dewpoints have also been dropping since the morning, which complicates the forecast.
It is a bit challenging to find a sounding representative of our CWA, so we are looking forward to using the NUCAPS product to see a vertical temperature profile.
On the 1minute visible satellite we were able to observe an interesting phenomenon of cu tops being blown off by Westerly winds. Using the satellite derived winds overlay we are able to detect some low level directional shear.
Using the same product we are also able to observe an area of potential convergence over the SE portion of our CWA.
Based on the information we have been able to find, we expect initiation to occur near the dryline in our SW CWA with development as the storms move East into regions of higher CAPE. Now we watch and wait.
-Stormfront
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