Thursday, May 5, 2016

BOI Mesoscale Update

Stout sw disturbance wrapping up off the SOCAL coast late this morning.  Robust jet streak working northward in largely deep meridonal flow pattern should yield convection by mid afternoon invof the northern Snake River Valley especially in light of current clearing across the area and deemed sufficient destabilization.

While GOES LAP derived PW/early morning NUCAPS pass shows limited moisture attm expect improvement through this afternoon as favorable deep southerly flow advects additional moisture north.  High based convection will present a limited yet marginal hail threat.  However more robust wind threat expected with fairly deep/dry subcloud layer driving effecting evaporational cooling.  Will continue to monitor.

10Z BOI NUCAPS

16Z GOES LAP/Winds

Tornadotod

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