Satellite influence on ProbSevere

As storms fired in the Blacksburg CWA, the particular influence of the satellite fields on a developing storm was noted. The storm of interrogation devleoped along the VA/NC border, and was first tracked by ProbSevere at 1750 UTC, with a probability of 3%, no MESH, lightning or satellite growth.

At 1844 UTC, MESH was up to .22 in, lightning to 27 fl/min, and weak satellite growth had been sensed, all bringing the probability up to 20%.

Six minutes later at 1850 UTC, the probability had jumped to 51% as MESH increased to .37 in and lightning to 42 fl/min.

By the next scan (1852 UTC), new values for the satellite fields were ingested into ProbSevere, with strong growth and moderate glaciation rates being measured. This had the effect of bumping up the probabilities to 76%, which really attracted the attention of the forecasters.

 A warning was issued on the storm at 1908 UTC as probabilities continued to rise to 88%.

This case shows the significant impact of the satellite fields have on the probabilties.