In terms of moisture and instability, the Raleigh CWA appears to be primed for convection this afternoon. Surface dewpoints are well into the 60s, while LAP data shows PWs around 1.3. CAPE in the 1000-2000 j/kg range on the latest LAP analysis, which is over two hours old. Of note are significant differences in the LAP CAPE field which are dependant on the retrieval method. In cloudy areas where the GFS was used, CAPE is largely less than 1000 j/kg, but where the clear sky retrievals can be used, CAPE values are easily double what the GFS is showing, pushing 2000 j/kg in some areas. These higher CAPE values are consistent with the mesoanalysis, so this leads me to believe that the GFS instability is significantly underdone. Largely clear skies over the area should allow the atmosphere to continue to destabilize thought the afternoon.
Lift in this region is not terribly strong, but there does appear to be a subtle shortwave pushing into the region and a weak surface low north of the region. This apparently is enough, as convective initiation is already underway near the surface low.
Shear is modest thanks to fairly weak flow through the atmosphere. There does appear to be some very weak turning in the satellite derived atmospheric motion vectors, especially from the surface to about 925mb. This turning is confirmed on the 12z sounding out of GSO.
Given the convective initiation ongoing to the west and the continued destabilization across the area, I'm expecting at least scattered severe activity across the area.
-Toki Wartooth
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