Preliminary Thoughts on CI False Alarm and Detection

Some of the initial moderate (yellow to orange) CI signals in Jeff Davis County around 17z where the strongest signals seen so far in the day. These yielded very shallow ~30 dBZ returns on radar but convection did not sustain. Further east near Fort Stockton was where radar showed the first substantial convection of the day with relatively deep 50 dBZ cores, albeit likely sub-severe. CI values were low prior to initiation of this convection. More recently strong CI values were noted in far northern Brewster County but has since waned. Around the time values peaked in Brewster County, weak shallow convection was noted on Midland radar, but the convection did not sustain. As of this writing convection is still struggling but weak shallow returns have increased in spatial coverage primarily across Pecos County. CI has show weak to moderate values in this area over the last 30 minutes. At least minimal lead time from when a signal appears on radar seems to be achieved with these moderate values, particularly over Culberson and Reeves counties. Will continue monitoring for continuity to gain a better unstersand of false alarm and detection rate of the CI products, but initial assessment is that the false alarms in the CI product may be relatively frequent (at least for the weak and moderate signals). 

-dryadiabat