Today, we focused very much on ProbSevere and the lightning jump algorithm. Unfortunately we did not have much time to examine most of the pre-storm tools such as the LAP products. In the limited exposure I had to those products today, it seemed like they had a good handle on where the gradients in the thermodynamic fields were located when compared to the mesoanalysis.
The CI tool generally did a good job of indicating where the convection was going to initiate. It was nice pairing the super-rapid scan satellite data with the CI products to see how the two correlated. Unfortunately, the severe CI again performed very poorly. Even on a day where we had several storms well above severe criteria, severe CI almost never exceeded 40%, and the one time it did exceed 60%, the cumulus cloud it was keying off of almost immediately evaporated.
As mentinoed previously, ProbSevere and lightning jump were used heavily today. On a few occasions, these products did not provide much in the way of lead time when compared to tradational warning triggers, but the experimental tools did enhance confidence in these situations. In other situations, ProbSevere or the lightning jump were the trigger for warnings. Unfortunately, today was so busy that it was hard to verify the warnings that were triggered off of these experimental products, so it's hard to say how much value was added from these tools.
-Toki Wartooth
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