The NUCAPS temperature and moisture profile (above) is showing slightly higher instability than the mesoanalysis. After adjusting the surface temperature and dew point on the NUCAPS profile, there was approximately 1700 j/kg of SBCAPE compared to roughly 1000 j/kg on the meso analysis. Unfortunately, the MLCAPE on the NUCAPS profile was unrealistically low at around 150 j/kg, but I'm guessing this has to do with poor performance in the boundary layer.
A few cells have begun to initiate in Northern Illinois, but there appears to still be a bit of a cap in place despite the fact that the mesoanalysis is showing an uncapped atmosphere. The cap will likely erode completely in the next couple of hours and when that happens, storm intensity and coverage will increase rapidly.
-Toki Wartooth
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