As the Visible loop above indicates mostly sunny skies an 18Z NUCAPS sounding arrived for diagnosis over South Central NC. Surface obs near Richmond County Airport near Rockingham, NC suggested a temperature and dewpoint of 77 and 62 degrees respectively, which lined up well with the surface report of 80 and 64 degrees respectively. As the Rockingham report increased to 85/65 by 1930z, the NUCAPS plot was modified to include the surface obs, leading to a CAPE estimate over 3600 J/kg as shown in the modified sounding above. Given that the unmodified sounding from 18z illustrated only 1708 J/kg, the continued mixing of mostly sunny skies and southwest winds should mean the boundary layer moisture profile should be drier. It would be nice to have a model-based tool that could automatically factor in low level mixing influences to save time in an operational environment. Still the midday CAPE assessment with temperatures climbing should suggest realistic CAPE values in Southern North Carolina to be in the neighborhood of 2500 J/kg. Interestingly enough, the 20z SPC Mesoanalysis surface based CAPE revealed a CAPE contour of 2500 J/kg within 80 miles of Rockingham (to the west), and values just over 2000 J/kg on top of this same area.
Forecaster: Manbearpig
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