Lightning Jump and ProbSevere Give Some Leadtime On Likely Severe Weather In RAH

A storm in the northwestern portion of the RAH CWA began to display borderline severe radar signatures around 2015z. At time time, there had been no lightning jumps and ProbSevere had yest to exceed 50% on this storm. Given the ample instability available to this storm, I decided to pull the trigger on the warning despite the lack of support from the lightning jump algorithm (LJA) and ProbSevere.
At 2023z, there was a 2-sigma lightning jump followed by a 5-sigma jump at 2025z. By 2033z, ProbSevere finally jumped above 50% to 65%, eventually making it to 99% by 2041z.
As of this writing, no severe reports had been reported on this storm. However, at 2037z, a significant three body scatter spike (TBSS) was apparent, so I am confident that this storm produced severe hail shortly after this time. Assuming this storm did not produce severe hail before the TBSS appeared, the LJA provided a roughly 15 min lead time on the severe hail, and ProbSevere provided about 5 minutes lead time (using 60% as a warning trigger). Forecaster lead time on this event was around 20 minutes.

-Toki Wartooth