LAP struggling with instability in VA

 A CAD wedge is breaking across the central Appalachians with instability increasing north of the NC border.  However LAP analysis has a very sharp line in CAPE right along the NC/VA border.  This looks artificial - perhaps the GFS is too slow in eroding the CAD wedge in VA. Note the clear sky major in wrn NC where wrn VA has the gray of GFS usage.

16Z Mesoanalysis has 1000-1500 j/kg of CAPE in that part of VA and I believe that more - a win for the RAP.  Note below that a fair amount of clearing had occurred in VA by 16Z.

Note: LAP products failed to update for a 2 hour period today, a cause for some of the discreteness in areal coverage when compared to the updated RAP.

 

BAJ