We've been monitoring a storm near Rockford, Illinois that has been gradually increasing in intensity. Initially, we noticed that in the reflectivity core, echos were near 60 dBZ at roughly the -20C level according to the NUCAPS profile. The ProbSevere was also gradually increasing from 15-50% before jumping to 70%. The jump to 70% pushed us over the edge on the Severe Warning decision.
Other than the ProbSevere, none of the GOES-R/total lightning products were indicative of severe weather.
---UPDATE---
This warning ended up verifying with a 1" hail report in northern McHenry county. Unfortunately, this report was about an hour delayed, and we were under the assumption that this warning was a false alarm. With that assumption, we did not warn on similar storms later in the day, one of which did produce 1" hail near Lake Michigan.
-Toki Wartooth
No comments:
Post a Comment