Storms began to develop over the Brownsville CWA late Monday afternoon. The NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere model output was utilized by forecasters along with examination of all radar tilts. As the Brownsville team noted a significant increase of reflectivity above the hail growth zone as well as a three-body scatter spike, ProbSevere values jumped from 38% to over 80% in 2 minutes (2250 to 2252 UTC; Figure 1). The jump in ProbSevere values can be attributed to inputs of new satellite information--specifically strong vertical growth rates as well as a significant jump in the MRMS MESH.
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| Figure 1. NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere and MRMS composite reflectivity valid 2242-2254 UTC 18 April 2016. |
This information was used to issue an experimental severe thunderstorm warning at approximately 2252 UTC. A common theme noted in the limited sampling of storms today is the jump in ProbSevere values occurring at approximately the same time as seeing rapid reflectivity intensification in single radar site data. See also:
Hidalgo Warning Decision
-Sieglaff
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