Early Afternoon Analysis - Blacksburg (RNK) - Virginia/West Virginia - Thursday Afternoon

As the latest feature has continued to shift Eastward, we are focusing on West Virginia and Virginia this afternoon where the Storm Prediction Center has focused a SLGT Risk for Blacksburg as well as part of Charleston (RLX)'s County Warning Areas.

Already this afternoon the Convective Initiation (CI) Model is forecasting high values for part of our County Warning Area, as we are breaking out into a little but of sunshine with a CU field moving into the area. Severe Convective Initiation (Severe CI) Values are all on the low side, will be keeping an eye on them this afternoon to see if they increase. Wind barbs are indicating that most of the winds coming into the region are westerly, which would go along with expected storm motion this afternoon.

Current 0.5Z Reflectivity from Blacksburg (RNK) is showing that thunderstorms are ongoing over parts of the County Warning Area, with more thunderstorm development expected into the afternoon.

Looking at different indicators this afternoon with the LAP Analysis, CAPE is extremely low, less than 1000 J/kg, would want to increase this, and Lifted Index (LI's) are 0 to -1. I do think these are a little underdone as when compared to objective analysis. Precipitatble Water Values are AOA 1.00", which I would believe for thunderstorm development, and lead to the potential of heavy rainfall.

Widening the view this afternoon, expansive CU field is noted on the satellite imagery from Virginia back through West Virginia, and into Ohio, Kentucky and Tennessee.

Will keep an eye on values to see if they increase as we work into the afternoon.

Moisture values we're increasing in the lower levels of the atmosphere, but it was noted that some drier air was working into the upper levels of the atmosphere (Upper Right Screen) and that would help with the instability factor as we go through the afternoon for thunderstorm development.

Forecaster: Schuerman