Today our groups operated in the Kansas City and St. Louis CWA's. The Kansas City group experienced active weather almost from the start, while the St Louis group had more time to evaluate the tools in the pre-convective environment before convection developed in the early evening.
GOES-R LAP
- We noticed an odd shift in the fields every 6 hours. Could this have been due to a different model run being used for the background?
- The Layer PW fields captured elevated dry air intrusion today with moistening at the low levels prior to convective development
- I like being able to see hour-to-hour changes in these fields.
GOES-R CI
- Both CI and severe CI mostly missed on the main line of storms. They both did hit on a storm ahead of the main line
- CI would be great for a warning coordinator; someone who is taking a step back and looking at the bigger picture. I think there is utility there. This would have helped yesterday for that type of use when many storms were present.
- For St Louis, it was showing signals that things were about to break. It would pick up on a cell just before convective initiation.
- It might be useful to tie this in with Hydro WFR; indicating where stuff might go.
- The 30 min full disk gap hurt yesterday; won't be an issue with GOES-R
- Shades of gray might be better for lower probs. Dark blue stands out too much, especially against clouds.
ProbSevere
- It always seemed to increase to significant levels a scan or two after I issued the warning.
- Storms were producing quickly
- Loading ProbSevere with dBz at -20C provided utility
- Tracking dBz at -20C level might help better isolate cells within lines
- With a tornado-producing cell, MESH was low, so probs were also very low.
- For ProbSevere and hail, it might be more of a product for confidence once you have a warning out. A warning coordinator should also be looking at this.
- I don't remember seeing any false alarms yet (high probs with no reports). Maybe only when there was a line when ProbSevere grabbed multiple cores.
- It helped give confidence to issue a new warning on a storm that had already produced and been warned on.
- There was a situation when I thought about letting a warning drop, but ProbSevere stayed high so I re-warned, and it did continue to look severe thereafter.
- This is helpful for monitoring cyclical severe cells
SRSOR
- With one warning I issued, ProbSevere had been slow during the day, and storms were producing severe quickly. In a data sparse region, I saw a cu pop faster than anything else I had seen during the day, and it continued to grow rapidly, so I warned. I probably would not have warned without the SRSOR. This will have great utility in data sparse areas, nudging you to warn in certain situations.
- I think there is utility in knowing the environment, EL, temps, and comparing this with measured cooling in IR imagery on the one minute scale.
Lightning Jump
- This was slow with devleopment throughout the day.
- There weren't really any significant jumps until after the storm went severe
- Lightning seemed to only steadily increase in storms yesterday, not reaching high levels until after they went severe.
NUCAPS
- I saw an area where I though things would come together later. I picked a NUCAPS retrieval location and adjusted the profile. I could analyze how the moisture profile evolved during the early day, which was helpful. In the morning Springfield RAOB, there was deep moisture. In the afternoon NUCAPS sounding, moisture had decreased with drying aloft, which compared well with GOES Water Vapor imagery.
- We have areas by my office in Texas where NUCAPS will be helpful, including a big gap in RAOB data in central Texas. This will allow us to capture the mid-day, pre-storm environment between RAOB data (in space and time).
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