We continued to work in Texas today, with groups operating in Lake Charles, Amarillo, San Antonio, San Angelo, and Lubbock.
LAP
- I thought the LAP fields were pretty useful. They were good in showing the moisture gradient over central Texas, showing moisture return back into the panhandle ahead of a synoptic-scale feature. I could see moisture moving through the topography, which was neat.
- I glanced at CAPE, the spatial evolution seemed good, but the absolute values, not so much.
CI
- A lot of False Alarms again yesterday.
- I did not see Severe CI hit on much. It did hit one storm hard in Midland.
ProbSevere
- One storm produced ping pong ball sized hail, and ProbSevere hit on it. Probs hung out in the 60-70 range, then took off so I warned.
- I am learning how to use ProbSevere more intelligently now. I think it is important to pay attention to the ingredients, and why the probabilities are trending up and down. Not focusing just on probs, but why.
- I liked to overlay it on reflectivity at -20C level
- A storm in Amarillo was driven more by lightning, while a storm in Lubbock was driven more by radar. I tis nice to see how different fields can drive the probabilities.
1-min imagery
- It was helpful to compare the 1-min imagery with 15-min data to see what additional information I am getting
- I use it just as frequently to rule out imminent storm development.
Satellite-derived winds
- I see this being helpful in diagnosing LL shear, and trends in shear, from the surface to cloud base.
- Forecasters thought that derived analysis fields such as wind speed and divergence would be useful.
PGLM
- I liked overlaying 1-min satellite imagery, flash density, and lightning jump. However, the overlay did block important details in the satellite imagery. It might be better to do this as a 4-panel.
Lightning Jump
- Last 2 days, I got on the order of 5-10 min lead-time storm intensification
- It does often fluctuate between low and high jumps, but the high jumps do attract my attention.
- I trend graph of recent LJ's would be useful
NUCAPS
- I had to do quite a bit of manipulation at the low-levels, as the whole BL was too cool.
- All participants thought an autmated blend with RAP and sfc would be ideal
- If we got to the point where the manual manipulation is streamlined, and you use the strengths of bboth RAP and NUCAPS, that's a lot of soundings at your disposal. Right now, it is tough with the amount of effort that goes into the modifications.
- There is no inversion present in NUCAPS, which is a big negative.
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