As of 2015z

As of 2015z:

Also, special 18z KCRP sounding quite instructive.  Strong cap in place near 850 mb, with most of the steep lapse rates and deeper shear in the mid-levels above this feature.  This substantiates our earlier notion that tornadic/wind producing storms are less likely, with hail the main threat.  Stronger/potential severe storms in the NW portion of the forecast area at this time are seemingly not surface-based.

Are the weaker lapse-rates/shear in the surface-850 mb layer biasing CI-severe downward? ;)