Interesting to see the difference between the observed 18z KCRP sounding and a 21z NUCAPS sounding south of the stronger convection. The NUCAPS sounding implies a weakening of the earlier cap around 850 mb. Is this weakening real, or is cloud contamination playing a role? This detail would be key in determining plausibility of convection to become more surface-based.
A 3 hour difference (18Z to 21Z) can definetely play a role. Have you looked at additional soundings or imagery to picture the trend in between?
ReplyDeleteAlso, what spatial mismatch existed between the radiosounde and NUCAPS?