1930z Mesoscale Update

Diffuse surface front now stalled across the Permian Basin of west Texas.  South of this boundary, the 1-km GOES-14 data showing ample clearing of low clouds as daytime heating continues to heat the boundary layer this afternoon. As a result of surface dewpoints residing in the upper 50 to low 60s, moderate levels of instability have developed with latest SPC mesoanalysis showing 1500-2000 joules of MLCAPE. Deep-layered shear on the order 40 kts should allow for supercell structures as forcing for ascent increases ahead of pronounced shortwave trough appraching from south-central New Mexico. With -20C levels around 19.4 kft, supercells will be capable of large hail and strong damaging winds thanks for steep low and midlevel lapse rates.