Lightning Jump Miss

This is a case where I was surprised that there was not a lightning jump. The most that the lightning jump algorithm went up to was 1 sigma. However, we can see in the bottom right panel that the prob severe was gradually increasing (up to 78%). The PGLM data was showing what you could refer to as a ‘jump’ as flash density went from 14 to 29 to 38 to 53.

-Helen Hunt