Daily Summary: Week 5, Day 2 (June 9, 2015)

On the second day of week 5, forecasters began operations in the Boston, Albany, and Duluth CWA's. As activity quieted down on the east coast, the Albany group transitioned to Rapid City, and the Boston group to Minneapolis. The day's most interesting convective activity was situated well away from any LMA, so the PGLM total lightning tools were not evaluated, unfortunately.

- Bill Line, SPC/HWT Satellite Liaison

GOES-R LAP
- PW matched with SPC mesoanalysis.
- In rapid city, higher values to east with a PW gradient in place, cell was locked on topo, used high res topo map. Storm was running out of moisture.
- Storms moving into drier air died off, could not go any further west where moisture was lacking

NUCAPS
- Compared to Albany 18z sounding, values of cape looked fairly on point
- For rapid city, 19z pass, spc meso showed 5000 cape, ncuaps showed that much as well.

GOES-R CI
- CI was a good indicator 30-45 min in advance
- In SW SD, black hills, it showed 90, then next frame storm went up
- We found it more useful in boston then minny, it did a good job east of Albany, into Vermont, showed convection would continue to develop.
- I think a ci to severe would be more helpful for me in the wfo
- Algorithm shut off from 30s to nothing. … this was because cloud type likely changed, from cu to more stratiform. So algorithm shuts off once we have stratiform
- To discern what the convective mode will be would be helpful
- When we switched to night, ringing of obs on thin cirrus
- Any diagnostic info under the hood that might be useful to see, in readout, because the probs themselves are such a black box

ProbSevere
- Switched from boston to minny, we had no SA, first thing that popped up was a 90+%, so we brought up warngen right away. Gave us enough confidence to go ahead and warn, then we can go and get caught up
- Cell over SD, started as 90+, then dropped to 30 briefly, then back to 90, issued warning
- Highest in Duluth was 55, gave us confirmation that what we were seeing was sub severe
- In boston, low probs, telling us what wasn’t significant, which was most storms yesterday
- In SD, with discrete cells, we used it to monitor mature evolution
- We had a case like in the training, 1.5 hr for first report, used prob severe to issue, no reports initially, but finally reports later
- Time series of probabilities would be helpful to see

SRSOR and 1-min OTD
- Looked at it in Boston, to me it’s a base data product, like radar.
- Confirmed to me what I was thinking would happen, southeast coast of New England, marine stratus moving inland, cooling overwhelmed se New England, could see really well with 1-min imagery, movement of stratus and different cloud forms
- It’s in our office now, I am sad when the sector isn’t over our cwa

Lightning jump
- When we were thinking of reissuing, it jumped, giving us confidence in our decision
- We saw LJ’s concurrent with increases in probsevere,
- It might be useful to have more info available, such as the actual amount of lightning