Week 2 Day 1 - Mid-south convection

Storms are building along and ahead of a cold front from Michigan to Georgia, where there has been some clearing of clouds for adequate diurnal heating. Figure 1 shows the NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere model output from a storm in central Tennessee, just south of one of our operating areas today. The moderate to strong satellite growth rates, ample MUCAPE, modest effective shear, and 1" MESH contributed to an elevated probability of severe, of 71%. The NWS issued the first severe thunderstorm warning at 18:56 UTC, 8 min later (Figure 2). The highest probability achieved was 83%. No reports have been recorded yet.

Figure 1: ProbSevere contours overlaid visible satellite and radar reflectivity.

Figure 2: NWS warning with ProbSevere and radar and visible satellite imagery.

-Cintineo