Week 1 Final Day

The forecast crews are setup in Norman, Lubbock, Amarillo WFOs today for the final day of the week 1 EWP operations (Tales from the Testbed will occur on Friday).

The Norman crew has a lot of ongoing convection in the southwestern portion of the CWA.  While they were getting acquainted with the setup and datasets for the day one forecaster noticed a rapid jump in the NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere output on a cell ahead of the bulk of the ongoing convection, the forecaster's blog post is shared below:

Rapid Increase in ProbSevere:

While we were writing up a previous blog post, we noticed rapid increase in the ProbSevere for a storm to the west of the OUN radar. The ProbSevere quickly ramped up from 9% to 94% as seen in the two images below.

Figure 1:  NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere and KTLX 0.5 degree reflectivity valid at 1828 UTC 07 May 2015.

Figure 2.  NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere and KTLX 0.5 degree reflectivity valid at 1832 UTC 07 May 2015.

Seeing that rapid increase was noticeable to both of us as were were typing up other blog posts and prompted us the interrogate the radar data. While the core looked small initially, the idea shown by the ProbSevere was right on.

Finally, with the location of the cell being right under the clouds from upstream convection (see image below), it led to N/A values on the satellite data. 

-SRF