Storms Firing Along Outflow Boundary in Southern OUN CWA

Strong thunderstorms are developing over northwestern TX along an outflow boundary left over from convection over OK and northern TX.  The ProbSevere values increased between 1902 and 1916 UTC (Figure 1).

  Figue 1.  NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere Model, composite radar reflectivity and GOES-EAST visible imagery valid 1916 UTC 07 May 2015.

The Norman forecasters have noted the uptick in the ProbSevere data with these storms.  The ProbSevere data combined with analysis of base radar data and knowledge of the storm environment was used to issue experimental severe thunderstorm warnings at 1921 UTC (northern warning)  and 1924 UTC (southern warning) (Figure 2).  The ProbSevere probabilities first exceeded 50% for storms A-D in Figure 1 at 1904 UTC, 1926 UTC, 1910 UTC, and 1914 UTC, respectively.

Figure 2.  NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere and KDYX 0.5 degree reflectivity valid at 1926 UTC 07 May 2015

-Sieglaff