Slow lightning Jump performance with SVR cell over Quitsna

At 1915z…a small supercell over Quitsna NC (fig 1)exhibited severe characteristics of 60-65 dbz above the -20c level and a low/mid level meso. Interestingly the small size of the reflectivity core and likely updraft volume limited lightning with the storm.  The 70 percent eni lightning detection efficiency in the area could also have been a factor.  This is seen in the -999 sigma lightning jump (fig 2) and only 9 cloud flashes in eni and no cg (fig 3).

It was not until 1938 that the lightning jump algorithm showed a 2 sigma jump (fig 4)…and then 1940 a 3 sigma jump that the algorithm itself would have alerted to a severe cell (fig 5)

Prob severe at 1915z was only 40 percent (fig 6)…because heavy cirrus from storms to the west negated the satellite growth algorithm.  The algorithm was consequently all weigthed towad mexh. It was not until 1925z that the mesh got big enough to have the prob severe go over 60 percent (f ig 7).

Due to the slow lightning growth…DTA were also slow in in detecting this storm. Not until 1930 for a significant DTA (Fig 8), and not until 1950z for a dangerous DTA (fig 9).

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Fig 9




1950z DTA MHX