Pickles – 5-18-2015 21z

Increasing moisture and heating to the south of a cold front across western texas (Fig1)…and 35-40 kt 0-6km shear making for an increasingly favorable environment for some strong to severe storms to develop off the mountains. These are being fed by a low-level se flow feeding in MUCAPE’s ranging from 1500 to 3000 J/KG from se portions of the CWA towards mountains. This trend is noted in GOES R derived moisture/instability products. Note: The discontinuity in the GOES R instability fields…likely due to the product below being disturbed by cloud cover from convection. (Fig2) Latest GOES R CI prob are showing greater than 60 percent prob for convective initiation for severe cloud elements(Fig 3)…while Latest NOAA/CIMMS prob severe model showing greater than 90 percent severe potential for shown storms east of radar. (Fig4) So…prepare for increasing potetnial for severe storms over the next couple of hours.

FIG1

FIG 2

 FIG3

Fig 4