KICT Experimental Severe T-Storm Warning

The Omaha team moved to Wichita, KS WFO and has focused on developing convection along a cold front.  The NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere model, combined with analysis of base radar data, helped the forecasters issue an experimental severe t-storm warning at 2217 UTC 04 May 2005 on the cell centered in Figure 1.  The animation shows how the ProbSevere model probabilities rapidly increase as the observations of the storm intensify.  The forecasters commented they liked how the rapid uptick in ProbSevere output matched with their analysis of the 3-d reflectivity of the storm as well as 5 sigma lightning jump (not shown) increased confidence to issue a warning.

Figure 1.  NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere and MRMS Composite Reflectivity valid 2200 - 2214 UTC 04 May 2015.

-Sieglaff