ILM-RAH early trends

ILM shift began around 18Z.  Disorganized clusters of convection  in Central NC at this time, with widely scattered strong cells, tracking east.  Mostly in RAH, one near the very northern edge of the ILM CWA.  Anticipating some more storm development in Northeast South Carolina and existing storms growing into the CWA.

Substantial downward trend in Hoke County (10) cell noted after reaching DTA threshold.  Robeson Co cell (11) dropped below tracking threshold, and not as a result of cell definition.

SRSOR overshooting top detected for a few scans around 1827Z on Harnett Co/Cumberland Co Cell (9).  Only overshooting top in the Carolinas to this time.

Will consider this when evaluating if new cells can maintain updraft strength.

This corresponds to decreases in Prob Severe, too.

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-Holaday